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Asmlmay Be Involved In The Scientific War Between China And The United States

Auth:亿配芯城 Date:2019/11/18 Source:www.yibeiic.com Visit:45 Related Key Words: ASML Lithography SMIC
ASMLWill continue to strive to become the largest deep ultraviolet(DUV)Extreme ultraviolet(EUV)Lithography equipment supplier,And benefit from it。however,The road ahead is a bit rough。



ASMLSeems to have done his best,But there is a factor that could ruin the banquet。China and the United States are involved in a so-called“Technical war”。Although the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese imports in the trade war,But the trade war has caused more and more Chinese technology companies to be sanctioned by the US government.。



E.g,Huawei this year5Month is listed as an entity,This limits its ability to obtain supplies from US companies.。however,The United States is not as successful as Huawei’s expectations in its competition with Huawei.。Actually,Huawei reports,Despite being blacklisted,But its third quarter revenue has increased27%,Part of the reason is that Huawei can replace US semiconductor chips with Chinese-designed chips.。



however,All of these chip designs must be fabricated in a wafer factory equipped with a lithography machine.,ASMLLithography is the most commonly used。This opened up a path for the US government.。If the United States is not so successful in dealing with China,It may need to change the strategy,Trying to stop China making chips。



due toASMLAn important part of the United States,The United States can blockASMLDelivery of equipment to weaken the strength of Chinese technology companies。E.g,CymerProvides a light source in the United States。The light source is one of the most critical components in lithography and optical lenses。Refusing to use the Thermo Light source can be largely convincedASMLWorking with the US government。



2018The second half of the year and2019First half of the year,ASMLSales to China are8.49Billion euros and5.94Billion euro。China is one of the fastest growing markets for semiconductor devices。Restricting sales in China will hitASML。



In the long term,Inability to sell to China may have another impact。Well known,China is developing its own lithography equipment。E.g,China is2018Opened a lithography machine,Claiming an exposure to produce22Nanochip。If with other resolution enhancement techniques(Such as multiple graphics)In conjunction with,This machine can be used in manufacturing10Nano or7Nanochip。however,Due to the large number of mask layers required,Production process may cost too much,And not economically feasible。



The most unusual is,China claims to use one365Nano-wavelength source completes all these working machines。The machine puts itNUVWithin the spectral range,Near visible wavelength。In contrast,DUV通常Dependent on193Nano wavelength,andEUV依赖于13.5Nano wavelength



Theoretically speaking,Use longer wavelengths to reduce machine manufacturing and operating costs。EUVOne of the main obstacles is the ability to output13.5Very few light sources for nano-light,Must be kept in a vacuum。The disadvantage of this Chinese machine is that its current output is too low.,Cannot be used in fabs。however,Can solve the problem of increasing the number of wafers per hour。Actually,This is a key area mentioned by Chinese researchers.,他们打算在他们机器的更新版本中改进它。



供应中断的威胁可能会导致中国加快引进这些新机器。这些机器可能无法与7纳米以上的EUV机器竞争,但它们可以与DUV机器竞争。如果是这样的话,ASML可能会在不久的将来与同行会面。



结论

ASML是光刻机的主要供应商,竞争日益激烈。在EUV时代,随着ASML成为EUV机器的唯一供应商,这一点可能会变得更加明显。预计ASML将受益于对先进半导体芯片需求不断增长的长期趋势,这些芯片只能在最先进的晶圆厂制造,这些晶圆厂必须配备ASML最新的光刻设备。



然而,与中国的科技战争缺乏进展可能迫使美国探索新的战略,其中之一就是拒绝中国从ASML获得先进的光刻设备。中国对抗持续的时间越长,美国就越有可能尝试这种方法。



这不仅会降低ASML在快速增长的市场中的销售额,还会创造新的竞争对手。如果ASML不再是关键设备的唯一供应商,牛市理论将被大大削弱,ASML可能不得不放弃自己的一些销售。



自今年年初以来,该股已上涨逾70%。在这一点上,大多数好消息都应该被考虑在内。经过如此长时间的攀升,该股可能会出现回调,这可能是由美国政府对中国的出口限制引发的。



话虽如此,牛市仍然适用于ASML。ASML在某个时候可能会失去一些市场份额,但它不应该中断大多数地方的业务。中国市场很大,但不是唯一的市场。从长远来看,ASML应该能够保持增长。随着时间的推移,前进的道路上会有一些困难,公司也可能通过爬上一段楼梯而陷入困境。

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